Data room

Built 08 Sept, 17:34

What the model expects.

Every number here comes from the engine that marks a squad, projected over the opening 15 gameweeks. Published before the matches so it can be checked against them — the scorecard is here.

Fixture difficulty · next 15 · net xG / game
  • 1ARSCOVavlCHEsunbhaLEEnfoEVElivHULnewMCIbretotBOU+0.69
  • 2MCIBOUcryCOVmunSUNlivIPSavlBHAnfoFULarsLEEbreCHE+0.59
  • 3MUNhulIPSeveMCIfulTOTleeBOUcheAVLlivBREnewCOVcry+0.26
  • 4LIVnewNFOipsFULbouMCIbreBHAARScryMUNeveSUNcheLEE+0.25
  • 5CHEfulBHAarsHULbreBOUeveTOTMUNsunLEEnfoCRYLIVmci+0.16
  • 6NEWLIVtotBOUleeHULcovAVLcryEVEfulARSbhaMUNSUNips+0.12
  • ···
  • 19SUNipsFULbreARSmciBHAbouLEEcovCHEavlTOTlivnewNFO-0.31
  • 20IPSSUNmunLIVcryeveFULmciNFOhulBOUtotAVLcovleeNEW-0.58

UPPERCASE home · lowercase away

Ranked by net expected goals per game, so a blank can’t flatter a club. Attack and defence are scored separately — one blended number would hide the split.

Top projected points · first 15 GWs

GKP

  • Tzolakis HUL£4.6 · 51
  • Trafford LEE£5.0 · 51
  • Raya ARS£6.0 · 50
  • Kelleher BRE£5.0 · 49
  • Lammens MUN£5.0 · 48
  • Martinez CHE£5.0 · 47
  • Henderson CRY£5.0 · 47
  • Sels NFO£5.0 · 46
  • Verbruggen BHA£4.5 · 45
  • Pickford EVE£5.5 · 45

DEF

  • Gabriel ARS£8.0 · 60
  • Tarkowski EVE£6.0 · 58
  • Calafiori ARS£5.7 · 56
  • Virgil LIV£6.5 · 55
  • Truffert BOU£5.5 · 53
  • Hill BOU£5.5 · 52
  • Botman NEW£5.0 · 52
  • White ARS£5.5 · 51
  • Van Hecke TOT£4.9 · 51
  • Hall NEW£5.1 · 51

MID

  • B.Fernandes MUN£12.0 · 78
  • Tavernier BOU£6.0 · 71
  • Mbeumo MUN£7.9 · 67
  • Szoboszlai LIV£7.0 · 65
  • Gakpo LIV£7.2 · 62
  • Gibbs-White NFO£7.9 · 62
  • E.Le Fée SUN£5.9 · 61
  • Bruno G. ARS£6.8 · 60
  • Foden MCI£7.0 · 60
  • Rogers CHE£7.6 · 60

FWD

  • Haaland MCI£15.5 · 75
  • Isak LIV£9.1 · 64
  • João Pedro CHE£7.7 · 62
  • Calvert-Lewin LEE£6.0 · 62
  • Thiago BRE£7.9 · 60
  • Barry EVE£5.6 · 56
  • Evanilson BOU£6.0 · 55
  • Gonzalo FUL£6.0 · 55
  • McBurnie HUL£5.5 · 53
  • Strand Larsen CRY£6.0 · 52

Ten per position, free. The full board and every player’s working comes with HQ Pro.

Still to come

A predicted final table — points, title odds, top four, relegation — needs all 38 gameweeks simulated rather than the 15 behind this page. It is being built; publishing a season prediction off a 15-gameweek run would be exactly the kind of number this site exists not to print.

Grade my squad — free →